| Louisville Climate Action Network |
This page was
most recently
updated on
16 Dec 09.
most recently
updated on
16 Dec 09.
Reports from Copenhagen
| Wednesday, 16 Dec 09 |
The days trickle down to a precious few.
I thought about saying that much of the delegates and observers have that "deer in the
headlights" look to them. But, sadly, it's really closer to the look when the deer is on
the side of the road having lost the encounter with the headlights.
Restrictions on access to the Bella Conference Center began yesterday. After having
registered and credentialed almost 40,000 attendees, the UN limited access yesterday
and today to 7,000, via a system of secondary badges.
One of my colleagues, Larry Greene, head of the Sacramento Air District, arrived this
week and waited in line for seven hrs Monday, outside in the cold, only to see
credentialing stopped before he got to the head of the line. Then, he was in line eight
hours again on Tuesday, outside in the cold without food, coffee or bathroomss—an
unbelievable situation—before he finally got in. (Larry, a nationally recognized expert
on air pollution, ably assumed the role that I had for about 11 years: local gov't co-chair
of the National Association of Clean Air Agencies’ committee on global warming.)
Because I didn't get a secondary badge for yesterday, I attended side events at the
Crowne Plaza a few blocks away. But I did get the badge for today, for which I am most
appreciative. I plan to make good use of it and hope to stay here late this evening.
There are protests going on outside of the conference center. There are stories of
more arrests yesterday—maybe a thousand or so—and of the Danish police being
criticized for allegedly harsh treatment of protesters and arrestees. But I haven't
witnessed any maltreatment, so I don't know how fair the criticisms are.
Rumors have it that there will be protests inside the conference center today, as well as
a mass walkout by environmental and other groups. I plan to stay.
So far, things inside largely seem routine and calm. With the restricted access, the
crowd is as sparse as Papa John's stadium toward the end of the Cardinal football
season. After today it will be even more so, when the UN will restricts access to 1,000
observers on Thursday and 500 or so on Friday.
So, as to the general state of play: the high level officials continue to arrive today
(about 120 heads of state). The first Plenary session with them is today (thus the
apparent basis for the tighter security). The Plenary's subcommittees worked late the
last few nights; one didn't convene until about 4AM this morning and worked 2-3 hours.
In general, the key issues remain unresolved:
here to preside over an unsuccessful conference but—with only a couple of days
remaining—the contours of an agreement are still quite fuzzy.
I've become somewhat involved in “bunker” issues: marine (shipping) and aviation
emissions and fuels. With emissions from other sectors projected to decrease and
emissions from shipping/aviation projected to stabilize, if not grow a bit, the percentage
of global emissions attributable to these two sectors are projected to grow significantly.
To date, these sectors have successfully had their emissions-related issues managed
by two trade groups with special UN status: the Int’l Civil Aviation Organization and Int’l
Maritime Organization). Besides the need to reduce these sectors' emissions, they may
offer either a global cap-and-trade system or perhaps a levy to generate tens of billions
of dollars that could be used to promote cleaner operations or to be provided to
developing countries for adaptation. There is very, very vigorous debate on these
issues. How they'll be treated here in the end is very much up in the air (pun intended).
Three good side events to briefly mention:
US Coastal Impacts. This discussion was hosted by several US federal agencies, incl
EPA. Our coastal areas face substantial impact. The many eco-benefits and services
of wetlands, marshes, etc are threatened. Adaptation plans are needed for all coastal
areas, especially along the southeastern states.
Carbon Markets. This event was hosted by the Int’l Emissions Trading Association
(ITEA), which is sponsoring two weeks of its own programming (down the street) on
every imaginable aspect of carbon markets. At these events, you see dollar signs --
and Euros, Kroner, Yen and Yuan -- in eyes.
The estimated value of future carbon markets — if the reduction mechanisms (cap-and-
trade, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation) are strengthened
and globalized — ranges between $1 T and $3 T over the next couple of decades.
We're talking some real money here.
And one would be foolish to minimize the extent to which the money influences
associated with such commodity value may drive outcomes in this arena—maybe as
much as the science on the need to reduce emissions to save the planet. Go figure.
I have developed a new metric at these IETA side events: suits per side event. What
with all the bankers, lawyers, consultants, hedge fund managers, derivatives specialists
and other financiers in these rooms, it's a distinctly different crowd. Their average age
is 30-40. Very few students or young people. Lots of suits and ties. OK, I had a suit
on, too. When in Rome.
The predominant message from these sessions was the need for a global, economy-
wide cap-and-trade system, to drive all the secondary markets (hedging, derivatives
etc.) to take much, or at least some, of the risk out of the system.
To my delight, one such panel included an official from E.ON's Climate and Renewables
unit: Sonja Franzal (sp?). My ears perked up when she said that E.ON is "poised to be
one of the leading market players" in this global carbon market. She asked, "How do
we ensure the gradual transition to a global market?" We don't get much of that kind of
E.ON talk at home. I took it from her remarks that E.ON has already made investments
in some CDM projects in developing countries. I'd really like to know more about them.
State & Local Initiatives to Reduce GHG Emissions. This panel on state and regional
initiatives in the US, was moderated by Gina McCarthy, a friend and colleague, former
environment secretary of CT and the new EPA Asst Administrator for Air programs.
The panelists offered a nice inventory of the many, many state and regional initiatives,
particularly by California and the 10-state northeast Regional GHG Initiative (RGGI) —
the nation’s first regional cap-and-trade mechanism. Almost all of RGGI’s allowances
are auctioned. It has raised $494 M that has been invested into a wide range of clean
energy investments. Very impressive.
Suffice it to say that the southeast US is lagging considerably behind most of the rest of
the country — in developing climate action plans, forming regional mechanisms and
adopting energy efficiency and renewable energy portfolios and policies. There are
great opportunities for such policies, and for job growth and significant economic
development and advanced R&D at our universities and businesses.
I'm off, to watch the Plenary debates/discussions/statements now underway.
Art Williams
I thought about saying that much of the delegates and observers have that "deer in the
headlights" look to them. But, sadly, it's really closer to the look when the deer is on
the side of the road having lost the encounter with the headlights.
Restrictions on access to the Bella Conference Center began yesterday. After having
registered and credentialed almost 40,000 attendees, the UN limited access yesterday
and today to 7,000, via a system of secondary badges.
One of my colleagues, Larry Greene, head of the Sacramento Air District, arrived this
week and waited in line for seven hrs Monday, outside in the cold, only to see
credentialing stopped before he got to the head of the line. Then, he was in line eight
hours again on Tuesday, outside in the cold without food, coffee or bathroomss—an
unbelievable situation—before he finally got in. (Larry, a nationally recognized expert
on air pollution, ably assumed the role that I had for about 11 years: local gov't co-chair
of the National Association of Clean Air Agencies’ committee on global warming.)
Because I didn't get a secondary badge for yesterday, I attended side events at the
Crowne Plaza a few blocks away. But I did get the badge for today, for which I am most
appreciative. I plan to make good use of it and hope to stay here late this evening.
There are protests going on outside of the conference center. There are stories of
more arrests yesterday—maybe a thousand or so—and of the Danish police being
criticized for allegedly harsh treatment of protesters and arrestees. But I haven't
witnessed any maltreatment, so I don't know how fair the criticisms are.
Rumors have it that there will be protests inside the conference center today, as well as
a mass walkout by environmental and other groups. I plan to stay.
So far, things inside largely seem routine and calm. With the restricted access, the
crowd is as sparse as Papa John's stadium toward the end of the Cardinal football
season. After today it will be even more so, when the UN will restricts access to 1,000
observers on Thursday and 500 or so on Friday.
So, as to the general state of play: the high level officials continue to arrive today
(about 120 heads of state). The first Plenary session with them is today (thus the
apparent basis for the tighter security). The Plenary's subcommittees worked late the
last few nights; one didn't convene until about 4AM this morning and worked 2-3 hours.
In general, the key issues remain unresolved:
- The US and other developed nations are holding firm to their proposed emission
reductions despite demands from developing nations that they be strengthened.
- The lead developing countries, China and India, are refusing to make legally-
binding commitments.
- It seems some progress may have been made on financial matters, with
developed country pledges of at least $10 B a year for the next three years.
- The developed countries are resisting the push to set reduction goals to efforts
necessary to a) limit the increase in average global temperatures to 1.5° C (vs 2°
C) and b) restore atmospheric concentration of GHG to 350 ppm (vs 450 ppm).
here to preside over an unsuccessful conference but—with only a couple of days
remaining—the contours of an agreement are still quite fuzzy.
I've become somewhat involved in “bunker” issues: marine (shipping) and aviation
emissions and fuels. With emissions from other sectors projected to decrease and
emissions from shipping/aviation projected to stabilize, if not grow a bit, the percentage
of global emissions attributable to these two sectors are projected to grow significantly.
To date, these sectors have successfully had their emissions-related issues managed
by two trade groups with special UN status: the Int’l Civil Aviation Organization and Int’l
Maritime Organization). Besides the need to reduce these sectors' emissions, they may
offer either a global cap-and-trade system or perhaps a levy to generate tens of billions
of dollars that could be used to promote cleaner operations or to be provided to
developing countries for adaptation. There is very, very vigorous debate on these
issues. How they'll be treated here in the end is very much up in the air (pun intended).
Three good side events to briefly mention:
US Coastal Impacts. This discussion was hosted by several US federal agencies, incl
EPA. Our coastal areas face substantial impact. The many eco-benefits and services
of wetlands, marshes, etc are threatened. Adaptation plans are needed for all coastal
areas, especially along the southeastern states.
Carbon Markets. This event was hosted by the Int’l Emissions Trading Association
(ITEA), which is sponsoring two weeks of its own programming (down the street) on
every imaginable aspect of carbon markets. At these events, you see dollar signs --
and Euros, Kroner, Yen and Yuan -- in eyes.
The estimated value of future carbon markets — if the reduction mechanisms (cap-and-
trade, Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation) are strengthened
and globalized — ranges between $1 T and $3 T over the next couple of decades.
We're talking some real money here.
And one would be foolish to minimize the extent to which the money influences
associated with such commodity value may drive outcomes in this arena—maybe as
much as the science on the need to reduce emissions to save the planet. Go figure.
I have developed a new metric at these IETA side events: suits per side event. What
with all the bankers, lawyers, consultants, hedge fund managers, derivatives specialists
and other financiers in these rooms, it's a distinctly different crowd. Their average age
is 30-40. Very few students or young people. Lots of suits and ties. OK, I had a suit
on, too. When in Rome.
The predominant message from these sessions was the need for a global, economy-
wide cap-and-trade system, to drive all the secondary markets (hedging, derivatives
etc.) to take much, or at least some, of the risk out of the system.
To my delight, one such panel included an official from E.ON's Climate and Renewables
unit: Sonja Franzal (sp?). My ears perked up when she said that E.ON is "poised to be
one of the leading market players" in this global carbon market. She asked, "How do
we ensure the gradual transition to a global market?" We don't get much of that kind of
E.ON talk at home. I took it from her remarks that E.ON has already made investments
in some CDM projects in developing countries. I'd really like to know more about them.
State & Local Initiatives to Reduce GHG Emissions. This panel on state and regional
initiatives in the US, was moderated by Gina McCarthy, a friend and colleague, former
environment secretary of CT and the new EPA Asst Administrator for Air programs.
The panelists offered a nice inventory of the many, many state and regional initiatives,
particularly by California and the 10-state northeast Regional GHG Initiative (RGGI) —
the nation’s first regional cap-and-trade mechanism. Almost all of RGGI’s allowances
are auctioned. It has raised $494 M that has been invested into a wide range of clean
energy investments. Very impressive.
Suffice it to say that the southeast US is lagging considerably behind most of the rest of
the country — in developing climate action plans, forming regional mechanisms and
adopting energy efficiency and renewable energy portfolios and policies. There are
great opportunities for such policies, and for job growth and significant economic
development and advanced R&D at our universities and businesses.
I'm off, to watch the Plenary debates/discussions/statements now underway.
Art Williams
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