Louisville Climate Action Network
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19 Dec 09.
Reports from Copenhagen
Saturday, 19 Dec 09

Well, it seems to be over.  I'm sitting in my hotel room in Malmö, Sweden, as a blistering
snowstorm moves through Sweden and Denmark.  Coincidentally, "The Grinch Who
Stole Christmas" (with Jim Carey) is on the TV.  

It's being called the “Copenhagen Accord,” and the Parties decided to characterize
their action on it as "taking note" of an agreement reached by certain Parties—primarily
the US and the BASIC group (Brazil, South Africa, India and China).  

Other Parties (nations) may choose to "associate" with it as well.  If the Plenary debate
was any indication, many of them will indeed associate with it.

So, it is not a binding agreement by any means, but does have notable elements,
including the following firsts for this process at this level:

  • The goal of not allowing average global surface temperatures to exceed 2° C
  • Voluntary "aspirational" emission-reduction goals for some developing countries
  • Some monetary pledges to fund adaptation by poorer nations, apparently with
    some control of how it's spent by the developed countries via the UN Framework
    Convention on Climate Change:
  • $10B/yr over three years beginning soon (immediately?)
  • $100B/yr by 2020
  • Some type of skeletal framework for some modest transparency, yet to be
    defined in much detail

There's also homage to the need for a binding agreement, but without specified dates.

Clearly, there is substantial disappointment among many.  I've seen some extremely
harsh characterizations of all that has happened here; much of the criticism is fair and
well-intentioned.  But, the Copenhagen Accord appears to be the most that could be
extracted from the system at this point.

Undoubtedly, the future path of the international treatment of this issue is extremely
dynamic and is heavily dependent on some key variables:  

  • What happens in the US Congress (which will depend somewhat on how much
    popular support for action exists)
  • The severity, timing and locations of on-the-ground impacts of climate change  

It's widely expected that the leading indicators of climate change will continue to worsen,
and that support for action will thus increase.  It very well may not be linear.  And it's a
fair bet that the more clear the effects become, the more likely that a future binding
agreement to address the key issues will be adopted.  

The classic intersection of politics and science writ large.

I'm certainly not a sociologist, but some of my best friends are, and this gargantuan
issue has major elements of rich versus poor, the powerful versus the powerless and
the need for change and the inevitable resistance to change.

Not sure if I'll post again before my scheduled return home on Monday.  But, I may send
another post after I've had a chance to give the final documents further review and the
commentaries and analyses of others, further consideration.  

Thanks again to the Louisville group and Cumberland chapters of the Sierra Club for
their generous support that made my trip here possible.  

I hope these postings have provided a better understanding of the int'l treatment of this
complicated issue.  My apologies if at times they may have been too long, unclear, etc.

Thanks for your interest.

Art Williams